“Why so glum, Ellsworth?” Peter Keating asked. “You’ve been in a bad mood all week. I thought a fresh bowl of vichyssoise would cheer you up.”
My friend Peter Keating and I were back at La Crêpe Michel, taking a weekend off from posing as protestors at the University of New Mexico for the (un)Occupy Albuquerque demonstrations. I’m always willing to endure great hardships for the cause, but I can only tolerate so much rubbing elbows with the great unwashed, who make up the bulk of our Progressive street agitators. The tea baggers are a bunch of bible thumping ignoramuses, but at least they have been known to bathe on occasion.
Needless to say, I was in a foul mood.
“I thought you would be ecstatic, Ellsworth,” Peter said. “The Republican Presidential race is in a full meltdown, just like you predicted a few weeks ago. Their new front-runner, Herman Cain, can’t get his story straight about those sexual harassment allegations. Rick Perry had that bizarre melt-down in New Hampshire, which has been all over YouTube. Newt Gingrich is still Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney can’t take a consistent position on anything.
“It’s like you wrote in your last column. The Republican race has turned into the three week death march by the Boston Red Sox.”
“Dear lord, Peter,” I replied. “You don’t actually believe the tripe I put in my columns, do you? Like any good liberal columnist worth his or her salt, half of what I write down for public dissemination is an outright lie. The rest are minor fibs, and only a small part is truth.
“The fact is, Peter, this last week may have sunk President Obama’s chances at re-election.”
“How can you say that?” Keating cried. “I know the President is still down a bit in the polls, but he’s starting to get his mojo back, and the Republican race is a total debacle.”
“That’s where you’re wrong. The problem, Peter, is that the only two conservatives who had a chance of keeping the nomination away from Mitt Romney took themselves out of the race this week.
“Regardless of the truth of those sexual harassment allegations, Herman Cain’s handling of the issue this week was an amateur hour. Cain was just starting to become a credible standard bearer for the Tea Partiers, and then this happens. Cain simply cannot survive this.
“The same with Rick Perry, who had the money to overcome his awful debate performances and become the conservative alternative to Romney. Now, this loopy maple syrup video hits, and he’s done as well. Even the right wing nuts won’t vote for someone who seems mentally unhinged.
“So, Peter, who is the credible conservative alternative now to Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich – who has enough baggage to sink the Titanic? Michele Bachman – who is like a highlight reel of the worst of Sarah Palin, Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell? Rick Santorum – who is polling in the range of 3.5% in Iowa, well behind the rest of the field, and not going anywhere?
“No one, Peter. There is no credible conservative alternative to Romney, not anymore. If Romney wins in Iowa, which is now likely, and if he wins in New Hampshire, where he is now at 40%, with a 2 to 1 lead, and if he wins in South Carolina and Florida, the race for the Republican nomination will be over with the Florida primary on January 31st.”
“I thought that’s what we wanted,” Keating replied. “Everyone says the right-wingers will stay home if Romney is their nominee. They say he’s no different from Obama. Even George Will wrote last week that Romney is the Pretzel Candidate, and could lose the GOP seats in the Senate and the House.”
“More disinformation,” I said. “George is simply bitter that his hero Mitch Daniels stayed out of the race. George and Karl Rove and the other Republican insiders are all prodding Mitt to discipline his campaign, firming up his positions, to get him ready for the general election. The Republican intelligentsia can read the polls and evaluate the field as well as we can. As of this week, the Republican race is over. Romney will be the nominee.”
“But all that flip-flopping on the issues will kill his chances, won’t they Ellsworth?
“Hardly. That stuff matters to the ideologues, but they hate our guy Barack so much 99% of them will hold their noses and vote for Romney a year from now. The key is the swing states, and that’s where Obama is in real trouble. As of right now, Obama and Romney are even in twelve swing states. Those numbers will move in Romney’s favor once he wraps up the nomination. If the economy does not improve dramatically, we Progressives are in real trouble.
“Depressing? Well, ponder this, Peter. Romney wraps up the nomination early, and makes the right wingers happy by putting Marco Rubio on the national ticket with him. Rubio helps the Republicans with both conservatives and Hispanics in swing states like Florida and New Mexico. With the current field in New Mexico’s first congressional district going nowhere, and with judicial redistricting likely to keep the lines similar to what they are now, Jon Barela is likely to jump into the race.
“New Mexico Progressives could be facing a 180 degree reversal of 2008, with Romney/Rubio defeating Obama/Biden, smarty pants Heather Wilson beating our golden-boy Martin Heinrich, and Jon Barela winning back CD1, simply by reminding everyone of why they hate Marty Chávez so much.”
Keating stared at me, horrified, unable to say a word.
- The Iron Throne
“That’s what happens when you play the Game of Thrones, Peter. You win or you die – metaphorically, of course. One day, you sit atop the Iron Throne, like our man Barack, lord of all that you survey. The next, you are Eddard Stark or Marcus Tullius Cicero – cast out of power, with your political head on a spike.
“There is no middle ground, Peter, for Barack or for us. We Progressives could be the ones on the death march.”