My prediction for winner of tomorrow’s Iowa Caucuses: Rick Santorum.
From Political Diary last week:
Santorum’s Surge . . .
Rick Santorum has rocketed to third place in Iowa, according to the most recent CNN/Time poll. His 16% support in the survey of likely Republican caucus participants puts Mr. Santorum ahead of Newt Gingrich and behind only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
While this is Mr. Santorum’s strongest showing yet in public polls, other recent surveys also show him rising into double digits, suggesting the Santorum surge is real. And the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania could have significant upside beyond the Hawkeye State and beyond the evangelicals who are powering his rise there.
“All of a sudden, Rick Santorum looks an awful lot like Mike Huckabee,” Iowa GOP activist Craig Robinson tells the Journal. Mr. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, was the surprise winner in Iowa in 2008 when he attracted strong support from the Christian right. But that turned out to be the high point of his campaign. Voters elsewhere discovered that Mr. Huckabee wasn’t particularly conservative and that, despite his laudable knowledge of scripture, he lacked depth when addressing a range of policy issues.
In the case of Mr. Santorum, even Republicans who don’t go to church may find something to like. He made his name in politics by exposing the House bank scandal in Congress and then launched a vigorous attack on the Clinton health-care plan. During his two terms in the Senate, he was outspoken on behalf of lower spending and lower taxes. Though he has hardly mentioned economic policy in recent debates beyond his odd suggestion of making manufacturing companies tax-exempt while continuing to tax other businesses, Mr. Santorum actually has a plan to relieve the tax burden on all companies and on individuals, too. If he is able to finish third or higher in Iowa and establish himself as a contender, Mr. Santorum will be capable of reaching voters that Mr. Huckabee never could.
– James Freeman
. . . And Self-Limiting Strategy
The polls say Rick Santorum’s support is rising in Iowa, breaking double digits for the first time. He’s benefitting from endorsements by prominent evangelicals, and perhaps he’ll be this presidential cycle’s cultural conservative who does better than expected in the Hawkeye State. The question is whether he has the money and message to do well in New Hampshire and beyond, and on that score skepticism is in order.
Mr. Santorum has focused his entire candidacy on Iowa, visiting all 99 counties and stressing the cultural issues that delivered the state caucuses for Mike Huckabee in 2008 and boosted Pat Robertson in 1988. Mr. Santorum is all moral values all the time. When I interviewed him as part of an educational forum in November, the former Pennsylvania senator spent nearly all of the half hour talking about the moral failure in the family and schools. At every turn he quickly changed the subject from school choice (which he favors) or national standards (which he opposes) to the culture and the need for a president to address those issues from the White House bully pulpit.
This will pay off if Mr. Santorum manages to surprise and win the caucuses or perhaps place a close second. The publicity would earn him a closer voter look in New Hampshire. But if he’s going to have a chance to beat Mitt Romney, he’ll have to consolidate conservative voters of all stripes. This will require a larger message than culture decline, especially on the economy, which is the top voter concern. Mr. Santorum’s economic message is focused on a revival of manufacturing, which is also oddly narrow. America does need to make and export more goods, but what it really needs is faster economic growth. By running as a cultural conservative above all else, Mr. Santorum may find it hard to pivot past Iowa and reach a broader GOP electorate.
Like Mr. Huckabee four years ago, he will also need to raise more money very fast to compete in South Carolina and beyond. It’s a tall order, and an unlikely one.
– Paul A. Gigot
I welcome your thoughts, agreements and disagreements, or predictions in the comments section. Also don’t forget to vote in the PubliusNM poll.