With the announcement by U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman on Friday that he will not be running for a sixth term in 2012, New Mexico has its second race in four years for an open seat in the U.S. Senate.

Senators Domenici & Bingaman

Prior to 2008, the last race for an open senate seat was thirty-six years earlier, in 1972, after Clinton P. Anderson retired.  That year, Pete V. Domenici won the first of his six terms in a close race against Jack Daniels — the father of former Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. 

Three years ago, the 2008 race wiped out the entire New Mexico delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Incumbent Republican Representative Steve Pearce defeated fellow incumbent Republican Representative Heather Wilson in a close, bitter primary.  Mr. Pearce then lost the general election by a large margin to incumbent Democratic Representative Tom Udall.  Thus, January 2009 saw New Mexico replace its seniority laden delegation with three rookie congressmen and one rookie senator.  Three years later, the sole remaining member of the delegation with seniority has announced his retirement.

Given the predilection of New Mexicans to re-elect their incumbent senators, the victor in 2012 is likely to serve multiple terms in Washington.  The primaries are fifteen months away, but potential candidates will start jockeying for position almost  immediately. 

A U.S. Senate race is a significant undertaking, and the universe of candidates able to compete from either party is relatively small:

REPUBLICANS

Congressman Steve Pearce won the GOP primary for the open Domenici seat three years ago, so he would have to be considered the favorite for the nomination if he decides to run again.  However, Mr. Pearce just convinced CD2 voters to return him to Congress after a two year hiatus, so a decision to again abandon that seat so quickly might not be well received by his constituents.  Also, convincing Republicans he is the best candidate to win a general election will be a tough sell after Mr. Pearce garnered only 38.7% of the vote against Mr. Udall.  Granted, 2008 was a good year for Democrats, but 22% is a large margin.  Mr. Pearce has indicated he will look at the race, but hopefully he will think better of it and remain in the House.

Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson lost to Mr. Pearce in the 2008 primary, but won five hard-fought terms in CD1 and has shown she is a formidable general election candidate in a swing district.  Ms. Wilson will have to overcome criticism of her voting record by the Club for Growth and other limited government groups.  Nonetheless, the former congresswoman has a thorough knowledge of the issues, she is extremely bright, and she is driven.  If Ms. Wilson commits to the race, no one will out work her.  Other than Mr. Pearce, it is hard to imagine anyone beating Ms. Wilson in a Republican primary.

Former Governor Gary Johnson has often referred to the job of U.S. Senator as “bellying up to the trough.”  He is right, of course, and he is self-aware enough to realize he is not suited to service in the senate.  Mr. Johnson is busy preparing his run for President.  His chances of winning the White House are slim, but Mr. Johnson has never been afraid to speak his mind, and he will make the presidential race more interesting.

Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez won Republican primaries for Governor in 2002 and Lieutenant Governor in 2010, making him a serious potential candidate.  On the other hand, the lieutenant governor has never run for federal office, and would have to demonstrate a comprehensive knowledge of the issues that would make him a credible candidate for the senate.

Jon Barela lost in a close race to Congressman Martin Heinrich in 2010, but might consider the race if both Mr. Pearce and Ms. Wilson decide not to run.  As pointed out here a few weeks ago, before Senator Bingaman’s announcement, Mr. Barela would be a strong candidate for the U.S. Senate.  He did not hurt himself in the CD1 race.  In a potential rematch, Mr. Barela may have more appeal than Mr. Heinrich with northern voters in CD3 and southern voters in CD2.  Barack Obama has proven that losing a congressional race is not a bar to winning a race for the senate.  As someone who earned support last year across party lines, Mr. Barela has the potential to become the one candidate in this race whom New Mexicans might come to see as a true successor to Pete Domenici and Jeff Bingaman.

Doug Turner gained experience last year in his primary race for governor, and has a bright future in the party.  However, finishing third behind Susana Martinez and Allen Weh with 11.6% of the vote hurts his credibility as a top-tier candidate for the senate.  Like Mr. Sanchez, Mr. Turner would also have to demonstrate that he is conversant with national issues.  However, in a general election Mr. Turner would appeal to independent, libertarian and young voters.  He is talented, and cannot be underestimated.

Governor Susana Martinez and Albuquerque Mayor Richard J. Berry would both be formidable candidates for the senate.   Neither will run this year, because both have their hands full with their current jobs.

DEMOCRATS

Former Governor Bill Richardson is the 800 pound gorilla in the race for the Democratic nomination.  It is hard to see Mr. Richardson wanting to be the junior senator from New Mexico, but if he decides that this is his last, best chance to continue his political career, no one would beat him in a Democratic primary.

Attorney General Gary King has been elected twice to state-wide office, New Mexicans have fond memories of his parents, and he is a genuinely nice man.  However, Mr. King’s lack of accomplishment fighting corruption as Attorney General almost led to his defeat last year at the hands of Matt Chandler, and would make him vulnerable in both a primary or a general election.

Congressman Martin Heinrich, recently re-elected in CD1 over Mr. Barela, is considering the race.  The congressman is a favorite of progressives, and the PPP poll last month showed him leading both Ms. Wilson (50% to 39%) and Mr. Pearce (53% to 38%) in hypothetical general election match ups.  While the congressman has had electoral success in the Albuquerque area, it remains to be seen whether he would appeal to voters in rural areas of the state.  Also, as a candidate for the senate, Mr. Heinrich would have to stand toe-to-toe with his Republican opponent in a series of debates, which he ducked with Mr. Barela last year.  Mr. Heinrich would not match up well in that regard with his predecessor, Ms. Wilson, who has a reputation for undoing her opponents in front of the cameras.

Congressman Ben Ray Lujan may or may not be considering the race.  It’s hard to see Mr. Lujan having much appeal outside of CD3.  Ms. Wilson would destroy Ben Ray in a debate — think Patsy Madrid crossed with Phil Maloof.  If Mr. Lujan has any sense, he will hold onto his congressional seat for dear life, trusting his dad to bolster his numbers during redistricting.

Former Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is a possibility.  However, Democrats are still smarting over the loss to Susana Martinez, and are unlikely to be enthusiastic in supporting her in a run for senate.

Former Albuquerque Mayor Martin J. Chávez was asked Friday whether he would consider making the race, and responded with the comment, “Never say never.”  Four years ago, Mr. Chávez announced for the open Domenici seat, but was then unceremoniously told by party leaders that they wanted Tom Udall because they did not think he could win.  It’s hard to see how Marty can mount a serious candidacy now, after he was defeated in the mayoral race by R. J. Berry.  It does not help that Mr. Chávez has a reputation in political circles of not playing well with others.  He is the anthesis of Senator Bingaman, who is liked and respected by everyone.

State Auditor Hector Balderas has indicated he is interested in running.  The plan before had been for Mr. Balderas to run for Attorney General when Gary King is term-limited out of office in 2014, setting up a possible race between him and Mr. Chandler in a race between two young up-and-coming politicos.  Mr. Balderas problem would be to compete with Mr. Heinrich and his Progressive muscle.

It is early, so others may look at the race, including wealthy unknowns with millions to drop on campaign consultants.

PREDICTION

Steve Pearce, Gary Johnson, Bill Richardson and Ben Ray Lujan will stay out of the race.  With Progressive support, Martin Heinrich defeats Gary King, Hector Balderas and Martin Chávez in the Democratic primary.  If Heather Wilson runs, she has only token opposition in the Republican primary and she goes on to defeat Heinrich in the general election.  If Wilson decides not to run, Jon Barela wins the GOP nomination over John Sanchez and Doug Turner.  Like Lincoln vs. Douglas, Barela wins the rematch against Heinrich in November 2012.

Of course, four years ago Pete Domenici was planning a campaign for a seventh term, Hillary Clinton was the presumptive President-elect, and few voters outside Illinois had heard of Barack Obama. 

The election is 21 months away, and anything can happen.

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